Welcome to a particularly heavy edition of The Weekly Finger.
If you feel like the world is getting smaller and the logistics of moving things around it are getting harder, you aren't imagining it.
We are shifting from a world of "just in time" to a world of "just in case," and that shift is creating some massive opportunities and headaches in the resource sector.
RIU Sydney: The inquisitions begin
Starting tomorrow, May 5th, I will be on the ground at the Hyatt Regency for the RIU Sydney Resources Round-up.
This is a critical gathering for the Australian resource sector, and the timing couldn't be more poignant.
I will be interviewing a slate of companies, and I have a very specific set of questions for them. I am moving past the standard "how many meters have you drilled" fluff.
The bulk of my questions will focus on two looming bottlenecks: fuel security and the global sulphur shortage.
With the volatility in the Middle East and new domestic strategic reserve requirements, if a company doesn't have a concrete plan for fuel prep, they don't have a plan for production.
Likewise, sulphur is the silent engine of the battery and fertiliser markets; if they haven't secured their supply, they are at the mercy of a market that is rapidly running dry.
A Note for My Clients
If you are a broker, fund manager, or high net worth investor, you are entitled to a free pass to attend.
- Registration Link: RIU Sydney Delegate Registration
- The Professional Approach: Don't just register online. Email Andrea Mansfield directly at andrea@verticalevents.com.au to ensure you are processed as a guest investor.
Tungsten '26: The metal that NATO can't live without
Next week, we are hosting the Tungsten '26 Webinar. If you aren't paying attention to tungsten, you are missing one of the most asymmetric trade setups in the critical minerals space today.
Registration Link: Tungsten '26 Webinar
Tungsten is the "heavy lifter" of the defense and industrial world. It has the highest melting point of all elements and is nearly as hard as diamond. It is essential for armour-piercing munitions, missile components, and high spec industrial cutting tools.
The problem? China controls roughly 80% of the supply and has recently clamped down hard on export licenses.
We are entering a period of permanent structural deficit. Prices have already moved violently, but with NATO countries scrambling to rebuild defense stockpiles, the scramble for non-Chinese supply is only just beginning.
Join us next week as we look at the few ASX players positioned to capitalise on this scarcity.
The Logistical Collapse: A lesson from the steppe
To understand why I am so focused on fuel and sulphur at the RIU conference, you need to look at what happens when a major commodity exporter loses its logistical spine.
A fascinating and frankly terrifying report has been circulating regarding the state of Russia’s railway and energy infrastructure.
The thread (available here) outlines a systemic breakdown.
They are facing a perfect storm of issues:
- Rolling Stock Failure: Sanctions have cut off the supply of high tech bearings and components, leading to thousands of locomotives being sidelined.
- The Labor Vacuum: The war has sucked the workforce out of the maintenance sheds and into the trenches.
- Fuel Paradox: Despite being an oil giant, internal distribution has fractured. They have the fuel, but they can't get it to the engines that move the food and minerals.
This is a live fire demonstration of the "Hormuz-to-harvest" crisis I discussed last week. When logistics fail, everything else, from food security to mineral exports, fails with it.
It is why I will be asking every CEO in Sydney this week: "How do you get your product out if the world's gears stop turning?"
Conspiracy of the Week: Rain and radar
Looks like I was right and the rains have returned to the Middle East. While some might call it a coincidence, the internet is convinced the atmospheric block has been lifted.
You can see the latest images of the shift here.
Whether it is a matter of natural cycles or something more "engineered" as the rumors suggest, the reality on the ground is changing fast.
I will stick to the charts and the supply chains, but it is always worth knowing what the fringe is thinking.
Stay safe, stay diversified, and I hope to see some of you at the Hyatt tomorrow.
James
